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| From the Boston Herald |
Mayor Menino Announces 1282 Boylston Approved by BRA Board - November, 2011:
The 331,000 square foot project that will be developed by The Abbey Group will replace an underutilized surface parking lot with 12,000 square feet of ground floor retail space, 88,000 square feet of office space, a 295 space below grade parking garage, and 210 housing units, including 21 affordable units.
The $150 million project will include a 2,700 square foot ground floor community center furnished with computers and presentation equipment that will be maintained by the building management and available for use by the neighborhood.
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Shadow Demand Will Keep Multifamily Bubble at Bay for Years
WASHINGTON, DC-Multifamily, it is clear, is currently the rock star asset class for commercial real estate with new statistics from NAREIT bearing this out. The industry association reports that apartment REIT price returns are up 225% through February 2012 since the REIT market’s trough in March 2009.
What is particular telling about NAREIT’s research, however, is not just how well apartment REITs have done to date—but how long that performance can continue. A lot longer, it turns out, than many in the industry currently realize.
“If anything I don’t think the market appreciates how many people are bunking up with somebody and waiting for the chance to move into their own home,” NAREIT vice president of research and industry information Calvin Schnure, tells GlobeSt.com. NAREIT finds there is a record level of pent-up demand for apartment space, with an approximately 2.5-million unit supply-demand imbalance in apartment inventory.
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Certainly this story has been told and retold in the commercial real estate industry over the past two years. Schnure, though, says that the demand will be unfolding for years, at least until 2017. The process of the unemployed getting jobs and moving into their own homes will take at least that long to work through the system, he says.
While supply is entering the system, it is not doing so at a fast enough pace—at least not fast enough to accommodate demand. According to NAREIT, between 2008 and 2010, construction of multifamily units fell as much as 70% from its trend growth rate over the past decade. Multifamily construction starts have increased since the beginning of 2010, but the number of units under construction remains at nearly 60% below its long-term average.
This long-term supply-demand imbalance will also keep cap rates from collapsing—especially as more renters enter the market. Cap rates have been trending down recently, in what is obviously a very hot market. They, however, are based on current income streams. As more people get jobs and look to move out of their parents’ or inlaws’ basements, Schnure says, income will go up. “We foresee see a lot more growth and apartment demand ahead than what we have seen so far,” he says.
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